International trade - once the driver of Southern California's economy, is in for a grim year, with traffic through Los Angeles ports expected to plunge 13.5 percent from 2008, according to a forecast released today.

But the downturn is predicted to be short-lived, with trade activity rebounding slightly in 2010, said the forecast from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

"It's going to be a modest improvement," said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the nonprofit LAEDC.

Bruce Ackerman, president and chief executive officer of the Economic Alliance of the San Fernando Valley, said about 5,000 local companies are involved with international trade.

"Trade is going to be one of the last things to turn around," Ackerman said. "I think we could hopefully see some stabilization in the third or fourth quarter of this year."

Some signs are already visible.

"You are seeing consumers move very cautiously back into the stores," Kyser said. "You've seen a boom in resale real estate housing, and ... (the buyers) move in and they are going to need washers and dryers and the like."

One measure of international trade is the number of shipping containers that enter and

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leave the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.

Trade peaked at 15.8 million units in 2006 and fell to 14.3 million units by the end of 2008.

This year, 12.4 million containers are estimated to enter and leave the ports, the forecast said, then increase 1.6 percent to 12.6 million units next year.

"California's international trade industry will need to develop strong survival instincts," Kyser said in the report.

The report also showed that:

The Port of Los Angeles remained first in the nation last year, processing 7.85 million shipping containers, 6 percent fewer than in 2007.

Electronics were the biggest imports in terms of value, totaling $58.2 billion at the ports.

Computer equipment, machinery and parts valued at $17.3 billion were the top exports in 2008 at the ports.

The total value of all trade this year is expected to fall 16 percent to $300 billon from $356.1 billion in 2008.

Trade sector employment will fall 9.3 percent this year to 450,000 workers from 496,000 workers in 2008.

Also, the state's export market fell nearly 21 percent in March, the fifth straight month exports were down from the same period last year, according to the University of California Center at Sacramento.

The state exported products worth $9.8 billion in March, down from $12.4 billion in March 2008, the center said.

The figures were based on data released by the U.S. Commerce Department.